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1994-05-02
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<text>
<title>
Bolivia: Economic Policy
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
Economic Policy and Trade Practices: Bolivia
</hdr>
<body>
<p>1. General Policy Framework
</p>
<p> In 1985 the Government of Bolivia initiated a series of
economic reforms to arrest hyperinflation and open the economy.
The currency was allowed to float, commercial banks were allowed
to set their own interest rates, import and investment permit
requirements were eliminated, economic activities which had been
reserved for government corporations were opened for private
investment, and the government entered into an IMF standby
program. The Paz Zamora administration, which took office in
1989, has institutionalized and advanced these market-oriented
economic reforms. Furthermore, the Bolivian government has
successfully completed a series of IMF programs since 1986. The
IMF expects Bolivia to fulfill the commitments made under a
three year Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility Program
(ESAF), due to expire in July 1991, and is already talking to
the Bolivian government about a fourth ESAF year.
</p>
<p> The results of the economic reforms have been a dramatic drop
in inflation (to less than 20 percent each year since 1986),
steady economic growth (between 2.5 and 3.0 percent annually
starting in 1987) and growing amounts of private investment. The
economy is expected to grow about 4 percent in 1991 with
inflation of less than 15 percent. Commercial bank deposits have
doubled since 1989 to over 1.1 billion dollars, indicating a
return of flight capital. Exports and imports have grown sharply
with private firms now accounting for over half of export
earnings, as opposed to 5 percent in 1985. Including estimates
of smuggled exports, Bolivia has run trade surpluses in the last
two years. These trade surpluses and large inflows of foreign
aid have resulted in growing foreign exchange reserves. Net
reserves in the central bank had reached 258 million dollars by
October 1991, about three months worth of imports. The positive
growth from 1986 offset the decline of the economy during the
first half of the decade so that by 1990 the GDP and export
figures were back to approximately where they had been in 1980.
Meanwhile the population grew by 13 percent to an estimated 6.3
million resulting in a fall in GDP per capita during the decade
to about 880 dollars in 1990.
</p>
<p> In compliance with the IMF programs, the government has
reduced the budget deficit of the non-financial public sector
(which includes central, regional and municipal governments
along with the parastatal corporations) from the high of 5.1
percent of GDP in 1988 to an estimated 2.6 percent in 1991.
Central government expenditures fell slightly from 20.8 of GDP
in 1988 to 20.3 percent in 1990 while revenues rose from 15.7
to 18.3 percent during that same period. Central government
revenues increased mainly from improved tax collection (7.9
percent of GDP in 1990) but also from larger transfers from
public enterprises (8.4 percent of GDP) and from larger foreign
grants (1.4 percent of GDP). Budget deficits have been covered
by the foreign loans and the sale of certificates of deposit by
the central bank. With the budget deficit shrinking, the value
of certificates of deposit in circulation had grown only
slightly to 184 million dollars by November 1991 and the
interest rate offered on the certificates had declined from 16.2
percent in 1989 to 8.5 percent by October 1991.
</p>
<p> The money supply, both M1 and M2, has grown slowly since 1985
with M1 averaging around 5 percent of GDP. However, the
published figure for money in circulation (323 million dollars
of bolivianos) is misleading since there are also millions of
U.S. dollars in circulation and dollars are a legal means of
exchange. Banks are allowed to keep dollar accounts and make
dollar loans. Over 80 percent of the 1.1 billion dollars worth
of deposits in Bolivia's 16 commercial banks are presently in
dollars. The new investment law allows contracts to be written
in dollars. Interest rates fell sharply in 1991 as growing
confidence in Bolivia's financial stability led to excessive
liquidity in the banks and as government borrowing has
decreased. By November 1991 the average rate on dollar deposits
had fallen to 11.4 percent and the average rate on dollar loans
was down to 19.8 percent from 16 and 24.3 percent respectively
in 1989.
</p>
<p>2. Exchange Rate Policies
</p>
<p> The official exchange rate is set daily by the government's
exchange house, the Bolsin, which is under the supervision of
the Central Bank. The Bolsin holds daily auctions of dollars.
The directors of the Bolsin meet every day to set a floor rate
below which they will not accept bids and the number of dollars
to offer for sale. The floor rate is the official exchange rate.
Bids are sealed and successful bidders pay the role in their
bids. The spread between the highest and lowest bids is
generally less than two percent. The boliviano has depreciated
in line with the differential between domestic inflation and
inflation in Bolivia's major trading partners. Currency
exchanges in banks, hotels, exchange houses and on street
corners are legal. The parallel market exchange rates are
seldom more than one percent different from the official rates.
</p>
<p>3. Structural Policies
</p>
<p> In 1990 the government reduced tariffs from 16 to 10 percent
for all imports except for capital goods for which the tariff
is 5 percent. In addition, the government charges a 10 percent
value added tax and a 2 percent transaction tax on sales of all
goods, whether imported or produced domestically. There are
excise taxes on some consumer products including cars. Import
permits are required only for sugar and wheat. The government
sets the prices of only two commodities; gasoline and a type of
bread commonly consumed by the poor.
</p>
<p> In late 1990 and early 1991, the Bolivian Congress approved
three laws that the executive branch had supported in order to
promote private investment. The Investment Law establishes many
guarantees, such as repatriation of profits, freedom to set
prices, and convertibility of currency, that had been previously
been implemented by Presidential decree. The law essentially
guarantees national treatment for foreign investors and
authorizes international arbitration. The Hydrocarbons Law
authorizes YPFB, the government-owned oil company, to enter into
joint ventures with private firms and to contract companies to
take over YPFB fields and operations, including refining and
transportation. The Mining Law created a tax on profits, which
is creditable in the United States, and opened up the border
areas to foreign investors as long as their Bolivian partners
hold the mining concession.
</p>
<p> All government purchases over 10,000 bolivianos (about
27,000 dollars) are, by law, handled by one of three private
purchasing agents. The purchasing agents publish bid
specifications, evaluate, and rank order bids for the government
office or corporation making the purchase.
</p>
<p>4. Debt Management Policies
</p>
<p> The Bolivian government owes over 3.7 billion dollars to
foreign creditors. About half of that is owed to international
financial institutions, mainly the World Bank and the
Inter-American Development Bank, and the other half is owed to
foreign governments. Bolivia's bilateral debts have been
rescheduled three times now by the Paris Club, the last time on
Trinidad terms and covering payments coming due over an 18 month
period. Furthermore, several foreign governments have forgiven
substantial amounts of bilateral debt. In September 1991, the
U.S. government forgave $371 million owed by the Bolivian
government including 100 percent forgiveness under Section 572
of all old A.I.D. loans and an 80 percent reduction of Bolivian
PL-480 debt, equal to the elimination of $31 million under the
Enterprise for the Americas Initiative. (All U.S. assistance to
Bolivia has been on a grant basis since the early 1980s.)
Subsequen